But the conservative senator failed to return to the Senate. The government was. However, they would be unable to strictly follow a how-to-vote card in that instance, and would be at greater risk of making their vote informal. You can use the PayPal button below or, contacts of imported cases (3 OS 2 CS 1 IS), Predicted seat result for the 2018 Tasmanian state election based on aggregated polling. After 1949, Tasmanian down-ticket candidates would often break 3%, but in the mainland states, this almost completely stopped. In South Australia, the vote for Centre Alliance collapsed, with a drop in the primary vote of 19% on the 2016 high under the leadership of Nick Xenophon, while Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young has again defied predictions to be returned. However, such comparisons are misleading. Greens senator Larissa Waters looks likely to win, while Roberts and Labor senator Chris Ketter are ahead for the final two senator positions. This table provides the name and party of Senate candidates for each state and territory. This isn't because revolutions against party ticket orders never happened. Molan's six figure tally has been described as a "record" personal vote in terms of votes received, but that claim requires a lot of historic unpacking. No candidate outside Tasmania was the subject of a significant BTL campaign like Molan was. Patten's BTLs were 48.7% of the Reason vote. Simple theme. The huge Molan vote in comparison to the BTL votes of others is being used to claim that Molan has an iron-clad grip on the right to a Senate vacancy. The data provided in this table can be filtered by selecting the different state and territory buttons and/or by typing a keyword into the available text field. It may be that such a voter would have accepted any order their party put candidates in. (July 2014), Unpopular State Premiers Have Dire Historic Fates (Dec 2013), Tasmanian Lower House: 25 or 35 Seats? Prior to the election, the Coalition had 31 senators. Subsequently he was placed in the "unwinnable" fourth position on the Coalition's Senate ticket in New South Wales, below Hollie Hughes , Andrew Bragg , and the Nationals' candidate Perin Davey . (Mar 2013), David Barry's Australian Election Statistics, australianpolitics.com (Malcolm Farnsworth), International Elections (Henry Schlechta), The Poll Cruncher (use for testing poll MOEs and changes), Wayback archive of my posts on Tasmanian Times (which I have left), Yes PM youtube classic about internal polling, Chesschat. The progressive quota is calculated by taking the number of formal votes counted so far, dividing it by the number of vacant Senate positions in the relevant state or territory +1, then plus 1. Auth KB 410 Macquarie SH 7004. Despite his credentials, Molan has persistently failed to gain secure positions on the Senate ticket, having contested separate preselections before the 2016 election in anticipation of both half-Senate and double dissolution elections, and respectively managing only the unwinnable fourth and seventh positions. In the years up til the introduction of group ticket voting in 1984, I found only three further mainland state cases: Dame Nancy Buttfield (Lib, SA, 1964), Dame Dorothy Tangney (ALP, WA, 1967) and Ronald Maunsell who somehow escaped a knighthood for his efforts (NCP, Qld, 1980). Powered by, Donations to help me spend more time working on this site or recognise work I've done are very welcome. Misleading arguments about it are being weaponised by some of those who would like to see Molan appointed to the Sinodinos casual vacancy, but there is also a risk that amid all this appreciation of the scale of Molan's result could be lost. Using the number of BTL votes of a ticket-leading candidate, such as Hollie Hughes, to say anything about that candidate's personal vote is also always problematic.

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